Did the upcoming "supermoon" cause the massive 8.9-magnitude earthquake near Japan and subsequent deadly tsunami? No, it didn't; here's why.
Last Friday's massive 8.9-magnitude earthquake and deadly tsunami in Japan resulted in a slew of headlines about the environmental havoc-wreaking power of the upcoming "supermoon." But in fact, given the moon's current position, its effects on earthly tides should be at their least. Here's where the reports went wrong.Where did the term supermoon originate?
According to AccuWeather blogger Mark Paquette, the term "supermoon" originated on the website of astrologer Richard Nolle. Paquette said in early March that a new or full moon at 90% or more of its closest perigee (the point in the orbit nearest to the center of the earth) qualifies as a supermoon. That makes the March 19 full moon a supermoon, because the crest of the moon’s full phase comes within an hour of the moon’s closest point to Earth.
Here’s what’s true--and false--about the moon on March 19.
False: The Japanese earthquake on March 11 is an example of a supermoon causing earthly effects. Not only is this untrue, the March 11 moon shows exactly the opposite, since the moon is not particularly close to Earth on March 11, nor is it full or new moon (aligned with the sun and Earth). In fact, the moon on March 11 is close to first quarter--at a right angle to the Earth/sun line. Thus--according to the supermoon-earthquake connection theory--the moon’s effect on earthly water and solid rock tides should be at its least today.
False: The last times the full moon was at perigee were 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. Not so. Full moon and perigee closely realign more often than that – in periods of a little more than 413 days (about 1 year 1 month and 18 days). There are, of course, differences in how closely the full moon aligns with the moon’s closest point to Earth for the month. On March 19, 2011, there is about an hour difference between the full moon and perigee. On July 21, 2005, the difference was about 9 hours.
False: A supermoon caused the December 26, 2004 tsunami in Indonesia. It did not. We all remember the devastating earthquake in the Indian Ocean that day. It created a tsunami that plowed into coastlines and caused the deaths of more than 200,000 people. The December 2004 tsunami was especially deadly along the coast of Indonesia. In terms of loss of life, it was the worst tsunami in recorded history. There was a full moon that day, but it was not a supermoon. In fact, the moon on the day of the 2004 Indonesian tsunami was nearly its farthest from Earth. The moon was closest two weeks later on January 10, 2005.
True: Some astrologers and even astronomers are using the term "supermoon" to describe the March 19, 2011 full moon. What makes it super is that--on the day of the March 2011 full moon--the moon will also be closest to Earth for the month. The March 19 full moon will be 221,567 miles from Earth, in contrast to the moon’s average distance of about 239,000 miles. No full moon will be this close to Earth again until November 14, 2016.
According to AccuWeather blogger Mark Paquette, the term "supermoon" originated on the website of astrologer Richard Nolle. Paquette said in early March that a new or full moon at 90% or more of its closest perigee (the point in the orbit nearest to the center of the earth) qualifies as a supermoon. That makes the March 19 full moon a supermoon, because the crest of the moon’s full phase comes within an hour of the moon’s closest point to Earth.
Here’s what’s true--and false--about the moon on March 19.
False: The Japanese earthquake on March 11 is an example of a supermoon causing earthly effects. Not only is this untrue, the March 11 moon shows exactly the opposite, since the moon is not particularly close to Earth on March 11, nor is it full or new moon (aligned with the sun and Earth). In fact, the moon on March 11 is close to first quarter--at a right angle to the Earth/sun line. Thus--according to the supermoon-earthquake connection theory--the moon’s effect on earthly water and solid rock tides should be at its least today.
False: The last times the full moon was at perigee were 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. Not so. Full moon and perigee closely realign more often than that – in periods of a little more than 413 days (about 1 year 1 month and 18 days). There are, of course, differences in how closely the full moon aligns with the moon’s closest point to Earth for the month. On March 19, 2011, there is about an hour difference between the full moon and perigee. On July 21, 2005, the difference was about 9 hours.
False: A supermoon caused the December 26, 2004 tsunami in Indonesia. It did not. We all remember the devastating earthquake in the Indian Ocean that day. It created a tsunami that plowed into coastlines and caused the deaths of more than 200,000 people. The December 2004 tsunami was especially deadly along the coast of Indonesia. In terms of loss of life, it was the worst tsunami in recorded history. There was a full moon that day, but it was not a supermoon. In fact, the moon on the day of the 2004 Indonesian tsunami was nearly its farthest from Earth. The moon was closest two weeks later on January 10, 2005.
True: Some astrologers and even astronomers are using the term "supermoon" to describe the March 19, 2011 full moon. What makes it super is that--on the day of the March 2011 full moon--the moon will also be closest to Earth for the month. The March 19 full moon will be 221,567 miles from Earth, in contrast to the moon’s average distance of about 239,000 miles. No full moon will be this close to Earth again until November 14, 2016.
What does this mean for the March 11 moon? Not a thing. On March 11, 2011, the moon is not particularly close to Earth, nor is it aligned with the Earth and sun.
Supermoons and disasters
The March 19, 2011 full moon is a close one. That’s absolutely true. A close full or new moon does connect-- regularly, frequently, cyclically--with greatest tidal maximums and minimums known as spring tides. That is also true.
However, the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan occurred when the moon was near first quarter, and not particularly close to Earth. March 11, 2011 should be a time of neap tides--or least tidal range--not at a time of high spring tides. The March 11 moon is not an example of a supermoon.
No comments:
Post a Comment